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  Who Will Be 2011's Arian Foster  Icon SMI  More Articles from Fantasy Football Freaks Reminder: Site Survey for the 2012 Season iPad Winner Revealed Super Bowl Rankings Conference Championship Rankings Divisional Round Rankings Wild Card Weekend Rankings Fantasy Football Freaks are the Champions of the 2011 All Pro Leagues 32 Team Expert League Week 17: Gems for the Last Weekend The Freaks Projections and Ratings 2011 Week 17 The Freaks Sleepers 2011 Week 17 Cristo from Dust Bowl Arizona asks: I'm pretty good at picking sleepers when it comes to rookies and over looked players. Had Arian Foster in 4 leagues and killed it. In your opinion is he still a legit threat as a top 3 pick? I ask as I like to find players no one else has on their radar. Since last year was his break out year I need to find a sleeper back. In the past i have picked Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Arian Foster. Who is it this year? Absolutely, Arian Foster is a legitimate top 3 pick. In 2010 he put up enough points to be the top scoring fantasy player in most scoring systems. Heck he outscored the 2nd best RB (Adrian Peterson) by over 80 points. That is a big gap to close. The most important factor is how consistent he was in 2010. He failed to reach 10 points in a game only twice the entire season. Most have him ranked #1 and those who don't look to Adrian Peterson because he has a longer track record and offers greater stability. Going off upside, Foster is clearly the top pick. So who will be this years Arian Foster? That is the million dollar question isn't it? In 2009 Foster only played in six games and finished as the 62nd highest scoring RB, putting up 8.2 points per game down the stretch. If he played the entire season at that pace, he would only have finished around the 30th ranked RB. In 2010, he skyrocketed all the way to the #1 scoring player in fantasy football. Every fantasy owner is trying to figure out who is going to be 2011's Arian Foster. The truth is, there almost certainly won't be one. It's unrealistic to think that there will be anyone out there that could match the leap that we saw Foster take last season. To repeat that level of success, you would need a RB like Ronnie Brown, Christopher Ivory, Brandon Jackson, or Marshawn Lynch to suddenly burst to the top of the Leaderboard. I just don't see that happening. However, there are a number of backs out there with exceptional potential. If you can land one of these guys later than expected and they live up to their full potential you could walk away with exceptional value. Here are some of the RB that we feel have the best chances to beat their draft ranking convincingly. LeGarrette Blount 2010 Finish: #23 2011 Draft Ranking: #15 Last season Blount was a 1,000 yard rusher and he managed the feat in only 13 games. Better yet, all but 30 of those yards came in only 11 games. If you extend those 11 contests into a full season, Blount moves up 8 spots on his 2010 finish. Keep an eye on Tampa's roster though. If they add another running back, it could affect him. Jahvid Best 2010 Finish: #24 2011 Draft Ranking: #20 Best came out of the gates hot in 2009, putting up 65 points in the first two weeks. He only scored 65 more the rest of the way and failed to find the end zone again thanks to a nagging turf toe injury. With a return to health, we're hoping he returns back to his big game form. Ryan Mathews 2010 Finish: #33 2011 Draft Ranking: #18 Mathews is another rookie that was hurt by injury, losing plenty of his season and massively disappointing everyone that reached for him in last years draft. When he did play, he showed plenty of promise despite losing goal lines and carries to Mike Tolbert. Mathews finished 2010 strong making his case for this years draft by laying 120 yards and 3 TD's on Denver in the last week of the season. Mark Ingram 2010 Finish: n/a 2011 Draft Ranking: #21 The Saints rookie is poised to play a big role in the running game. He will have to compete with Pierre Thomas and Christopher Ivory, but New Orleans is a complete team and there's room for multiple backs to have success there. Ingram is expected to see enough work to earn his draft spot. Daniel Thomas 2010 Finish: n/a 2011 Draft Ranking: #25 Thomas has tremendous upside that is only tempered by the fact that he is a rookie and you never know exactly what you're going to get from first year players. His situation is ideal. Miami is a team that wants to run the ball and with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams out he is going to get tons of work. Even the addition of Reggie Bush doesn't affect his chances, because their roles will be completely different. Have a fantasy football question of your own? Click Here to ask us. |
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