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Monday, August 22, 2011

This is a dilemma that could face a lot of owners in the draft.

With PPR in the mix, I would take Reggie Bush.

Beanie Wells is not a good PPR back, he only had 5 catches last season and 12 the year before that. Let's take 2010 out of the equation, because they both had terrible seasons. Instead, let's go back to 2009. They both averaged nearly 8 points per game in standard leagues. Add PPR to the mix and Bush goes up to around 11 points per game, Beanie goes up to just under 9. Advantage Bush.

This year there's actually a lot of odd parallels between the two. Both have injury risks. Both are in line for an expanded role. Both come with numerous warning signs and question marks.

Wells is going to have to carry the ground game in Arizona. Tim Hightower is gone and Ryan Williams is done for the year. Being the feature back is usually a solid bonus, but with Wells' durability and ability in question, you can't be so sure. No question he'll get plenty of work, but can he make it count and can he last the entire season? You also can't rule out that Arizona won't make a move to bring someone else in to compete.

On the flip side, Bush has moved out of New Orleans where he was 1 of 4 Running Backs and into Miami where he'll be a complementary back to Daniel Thomas. In early preseason action, he's handling a lot of passes and showing the slipperiness that first attracted teams to him. It's not a prototypical Running Back style, but it plays well in PPR leagues.

Everyone likes to point out how he's never rushed for 600 yards, but (omitting 2010) he's never gained less than 700 all purpose yards and he's never had less than 6 touchdowns. He also averaged 65 catches per year from 2006-2009. That's up to 4 points per week that Wells can't touch.

At the end of the season, if they both stay healthy, I think either guy could come out ahead, but I feel safer with Reggie Bush in this spot. His pass catching ability, his expanded role in Miami, and the security he should have with that role give him the edge in this one.

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