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Not many players have seen the same kind of swing in their draft stock as Miami Running Back Daniel Thomas. The rookie out of Kansas State has been moving like crazy throughout the preseason.

It started with former Dolphins Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. As both guys officially found new teams in the NFL (Ricky to the Ravens and Ronnie to the Eagles) Thomas saw his value soar. At that point he owned Miami's backfield and the only thing that could have gotten in the way was a veteran signing that would relegate him to a time share.

Miami went out and picked up Reggie Bush which was actually a good thing for Thomas. Bush has never been a feature back in his NFL career and his style of play is totally different from Thomas. The two could easily coexist in Miami's offense.

This was the high point for Thomas. Early drafters were taking him early and banking on a monster workload. Ah, one of the many dangers of drafting too soon.

Since the preseason began, Thomas' value has started to decline. He hasn't put on an impressive showing so far. In 2 of his first 3 preseason games his per carry average was less than 3 yards and coach Tony Sparano called for him to run harder and be more confident. Shortly after, reports came down that Thomas would not be carrying the bulk of the load in Miami after all.

Finally, the Dolphins picked up Larry Johnson, putting even greater doubts on how many carries Thomas is going to get.

Fantasy Outlook:
Rookie RBs are always a dangerous proposition. Since no one can say exactly how a player will transition from college to the NFL, their draft value is determined by how much hype they generate. Everyone is looking for that diamond in the rough.

Just look at Ryan Mathews from a year ago. The early hype was that he would top 300 carries in the 2010 season. Thanks to injury troubles and the emergence of Mike Tolbert, he finished with only 157. Not what his owners wanted after drafting him way too early in the third (or even second) round.

Back to Thomas - the fact is he is a rookie and he needs more time to acclimate to a new team, new role, and a new level of play. He's definitely got the tools and the talent to pan out, but it's going to take some time and more touches.

Don't reach too much for him. In standard leagues he is a bench RB/flex option with potential for bigger and better things as the year progresses. Treat him that way on draft day.

Update:
This coaster just keeps rolling. The Dolphins have cut Larry Johnson, giving Thomas another nudge upward. The primary backup in Miami is Lex Hilliard who will be pressed into action if Bush or Thomas can't go.